The U.S. May Completely Abandon Carbon Neutrality; Domestic Zero-Carbon Initiatives Are in Full Swing

As the world's largest cumulative emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States is planning to no longer regard "carbon neutrality" as a national goal.

At the end of July, the U.S. Department of Energy released a "Reassessment Report on Climate Impacts," which questioned climate models, the harm of greenhouse gases, and the frequency of extreme weather from a scientific perspective. It argued that climate issues may have little to do with greenhouse gas emissions, or at least that there is no evidence of a correlation between the two. Almost simultaneously, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it would formally revoke the 2009 administrative finding that "greenhouse gases pose a threat to human health." Experts analyze that this revocation means that, legally, the U.S. government will no longer be obligated to restrict carbon emissions in the future.

In January this year, the U.S. President signed an executive order announcing that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement on addressing climate change. In response, the United Nations stated that currently, under the framework of the Paris Agreement, collective efforts have shown initial results, but to better address climate change, we need to go further and faster together. The UN Secretary-General still believes that cities, states, and enterprises within the United States, as well as other countries, will continue to work for low-carbon, resilient economic growth, which will create high-quality jobs and markets for prosperity in the 21st century.

The term "carbon neutrality" was initially used to describe the state where the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by a plant during its lifetime equals the amount it releases. Later, it evolved into an important concept advocated by various countries to protect the environment and achieve sustainable development. In 2003, American actor Leonardo DiCaprio paid to plant trees in Mexico to offset the carbon dioxide he generated, claiming to be the first carbon-neutral citizen in the United States. In 2006, "carbon neutrality" became the word of the year. In 2015, this concept was re-proposed by the European Union, aiming to address climate change through global cooperation. In 2020, China officially announced the goals of "carbon peaking by 2030" and "carbon neutrality by 2060" (known as the "dual-carbon" goals).

Currently, carbon neutrality mainly refers to the situation where enterprises, countries, or individuals offset their own carbon dioxide emissions through various means within a certain period to achieve "zero emissions" of carbon dioxide. Methods include afforestation, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, as well as energy conservation, emission reduction, and industrial adjustment.

In contrast to the United States, the European Union firmly supports "carbon neutrality" and will fully implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – commonly known in the industry as a "carbon tariff" – in 2026. It will impose tariffs on imported goods based on their carbon content, while continuously reducing internal carbon allowances to maintain high carbon prices. Initially, it will apply to imports of specific carbon-intensive goods and some precursor materials, with the ultimate goal of covering all industries included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) by 2030. The EU stated that this policy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, curb the risk of carbon leakage in the EU, and balance the carbon costs incurred inside and outside the EU.

Back in China, 2025 marks the fifth anniversary of the proposal of China's "dual-carbon" goals. At the press conference on the theme of "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" held on July 9, relevant officials stated that China is leading global green development, promoting common prosperity among countries, and safeguarding fairness and justice in the world through concrete actions. Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has firmly fulfilled its "dual-carbon" commitments: energy consumption per unit of GDP has dropped by a cumulative 11.6% over four years, equivalent to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 1.1 billion tons. This fully demonstrates the responsibility of a major country.

Recently, multiple departments of the State Council have deployed work for the second half of the year. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that it will "promote green and low-carbon development through the comprehensive transformation of dual control of carbon emissions, and accelerate the establishment of a new mechanism for the comprehensive transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions."

Meanwhile, the NDRC and two other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying Out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Parks," intending to support qualified regions in taking the lead in building a number of zero-carbon parks, gradually improving relevant planning and design, technical equipment, business models, and management standards, and promoting the low-carbon and zero-carbon transformation of various parks in a planned and phased manner. Experts believe that parks are important platforms for industrial economic development and job creation, as well as major sources of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Building zero-carbon parks and exploring paths for parks to reduce emissions and improve efficiency are of great significance for promoting high-quality development.

As analyzed by the industry, there will no longer be a unified "climate justice" globally, and China's own green future must be defined and realized by itself. "While the U.S. may choose not to reduce emissions, China cannot afford to stand still."